Fundamental
Analysis
Fundamental analysis can be used
for forecasting many things. Forecasting
accurate levels for market turning points
is not one of them though. The fundamental
analysts may sometimes get the direction
correct but the predictions for the target
levels are often nothing more than wild
guesses. Don't lose your money listening to
all those "experts" on the T.V. and don't
forget that if anyone appears on T.V. or
writes in a newspaper giving financial
advice, they do NOT have to be
qualified.
Technical
Analysis
Technical
analysts are like Jemima. When
they are good they are very very good
but when they are bad they are
horrid. Many you see on T.V. are
unqualified, inexperienced and
base their knowledge on reading a few
books or as one of my old colleagues
used to say "One book and not a very
good book at that". Unless you
know their track record and the risk
criteria they use for their trading,
then forget it. You could be risking
your hard earned cash on an idea they
only thought of on the way to the
studio because they didn't have much
to say.
The True Nature
of Markets
Let's
make this really short. Markets are NOT
random. It's worth saying that again
because it is vital that we all
understand it. Markets are NOT
random. Accurate predictions for
market turning points can be made and they
can be made not just for day trading. They
can be made for years into the future but
only if you know how to do it and know how
to unravel the DNA like quality that price
data has. After many years of research I
discovered how to do this and I can
show you how to do it
too.
Strong Trends and
Super Trends
Markets that trend
do so generally in three ways. They
either
trend gently, strongly
or exponentially (Super
Trends). If you get the type of trend
wrong you are in danger of losing
money faster than you can say
"I've lost the lot". You need to know
how to recognise the difference and
recognise it early as there is a lot
of money to be made in them. The "Dot
Com" boom was an exponential trend.
So was Wheat, Gold and Oil. All
good trends come to an end
though, which brings us to
Crashes.
Crashes,
Panics and Big
Moves
Again these are not
random events. The 1987 stockmarket
crash happened for a reason and it
wasn't for any of the reasons that I
have seen put forward by the so
called experts. I was working in the
City of London at the time, for a
major bank, and was right in the
middle of all the action. Afterwards
I wanted to find out the real reason
it happened and I found
it. Guess what, the 1929
crash looks very similar and so does
the 2000 "Dot Com" disaster. I am not
just talking about "the
market has gone a long way very
fast so it must come down", I am
talking about having information good
enough to trade on with a
quantifiable risk. Big moves do not
come out of thin air, they can often
be be calculated and predicted in
advance. This type of
information can even be used every
week for high quality/low risk day
trades. You just need to know what to
look for and how to calculate
the turning point
prices.
Non
Trending/Trading Range
Markets
Non Trending
Markets = Cash
Machines
Trading ranges can
be one the best markets to trade
(about 80% of market time is trading
ranges) but there is a problem that
makes them difficult to trade unless
you have the right information. The
highs and lows of the ranges shift
like the boundaries of an offshore
quicksand. What looks like a buying
opportunity on a breakout can
actually be the new high. You might
buy at the worst possible moment if
you don't know the new price levels.
Don't get caught out. Know the real
levels in
advance.
The
Truth is that the Only Person Who
Can Manage Your Money the Way You
Want it Managed .....is YOU
!
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